Denominator Neglect: What You Need to Know

Picture two urns stood on a table in front of you.

You’re given the opportunity to pick a marble from one of them, and drawing a red marble wins a prize.

The first urn has 10 marbles in it, 1 of which is red.

The second urn has 100 marbles in it, 8 of which are red.

Which urn would you choose? It doesn’t seem a tricky decision: your chances of drawing a red marble out of the first urn are greater (10%) than your chances of drawing a red marble out of the second urn (8%).

Read more: https://www.askattest.com/blog/product-updates/denominator-neglect

 

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